Long Term Health Spending Alongside Population Aging in N-11 Emerging Nations



Nemanja Rancic, Mihajlo (Michael) Jakovljevic


Rancic N, Jakovljevic M. 2016. Long Term Health Spending Alongside Population Aging in N-11 Emerging Nations. Eastern European Business and Economics Journal 2(1): 2-26.


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Uldis BERĶIS, Rīgas Stradiņa Universitāte, Latvia;

Piotr ROMANIUK, Medical University of Silesia in Katowice, Poland;

Rumen STEFANOV, Medical University of Plovdiv, Bulgaria.



The rise of “emerging markets” is one of the key changes that is causing the global economic situation to unravel. The Next Eleven (Next-11) countries are known as the second-tier group of “emerging economies” behind the BRICS. Regardless of their diverse socio-geographical characteristics, the Next-11 countries have similarities pointing out to their high economic potential. The paper presents long-term differentials of accelerated population aging and corresponding health expenditure in the Next-11 nations from 1995 to 2013. An increase in the proportion of the elderly population, coupled with falling fertility rates, led the Next-11 countries to increase health care expenditures. Total health spending, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic products, gives clear evidence of growth. Private expenditure on health has been undergoing constant increases in recent years, driven primarily by out-of-pocket spending. Regardless of different health care financing mechanisms, all Next-11 health systems appear to withstand a heavy burden of an aging population, threatening their fiscal sustainability in the upcoming decades.



Next-Eleven countries, Health care expenditure, Medical Spending, Population Aging, N-11, Emerging Markets, Trend analysis


JEL classification:

I15, P52, J11






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