Sustainability Cycles in China, India and the World?




Jarmo Vehmas, Jari Kaivo-oja, Jyrki Luukkanen


Vehmas J, Kaivo-oja J, Luukkanen J. 2016. Sustainability Cycles in China, India, and the World? Eastern European Business and Economics Journal 2(2): 139-164.


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Joanna BRUZDA, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun, Poland;

Lixin SUN, Shandong University, China;

Stephen I. TERNYIK, Ternyik Rand/Techno-Logos, Inc., Germany.



This paper studies the key variables of the so-called ImPACT identity, which includes four drivers of environmental impact (Im): population (P), affluence (A), intensity of consumption (C), and technology (T). In the empirical analysis, carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion (CO2) represents the environmental impact, and the influencing factors are represented by the amount of population (POP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP/POP), energy intensity of the national economy (TPES/GDP), and carbon intensity of energy supply (CO2/TPES), respectively. The authors present annual changes in the ImPACT variables and their comparative analysis in the World, China, and India during the time period 1971-2009. They also identify the cyclical nature of annual changes in the ImPACT variables, similar to the Goodwin growth cycle model. In the formation of green growth strategies this kind of empirical finding must be taken seriously into consideration.



ImPACT analysis, China, India, the World, global sustainable development, economic growth, economic cycles, economic planning, history of global economy


JEL classification: O11, N11, N90, O210






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